Warning: Quake Coming - Technology Information

Scientists are working on America's first Internet-enabled earthquake alert system.

LAST MONTH, THE CITIZENS OF SEATTLE dodged a big one -- a 6.8-magnitude earthquake that spared the city major damage only because it occurred miles below ground. To scientists at the California Institute of Technology and the U.S. Geological Survey, it was yet another incentive to push forward an ambitious Internet-enabled earthquake early-warning system for Southern California, the first of its kind in the U.S.

For the last five years, Caltech and the USGS have been upgrading Southern California's network of quake detection stations -- a system of sensors that digitally transmit the magnitude and velocity of earthquakes to Caltech or the USGS. The project costs $21 million and is funded largely by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The city of Sacramento will put up $6.8 million more to extend this "integrated seismic network" to Northern California.

By the end of the year, when 700 stations are up and running, Southern California will be the best-monitored earthquake zone in the world, with sensors every nine miles. At that point, scientists can launch a pilot early warning program. Caltech is currently working on software to broadcast quake warnings over the Internet to emergency workers and local authorities.

"We find out that something is going on at one of our sensors almost at the speed of light," says Jim Goltz, Caltech's manager of earthquake programs. "The delay between us knowing what is going on and the ground motion may give us time to get a warning out."

For instance, Goltz says a 7.5-magnitude earthquake at Bombay Beach on the San Andreas Fault would take about 75 seconds to reach metropolitan Los Angeles some 130 miles away. That might not seem like much time, but it could be enough to broadcast a warning and evacuate a school or shut down vulnerable segments of the power grid. Provided, of course, that everyone's Internet connection is working.

Other obstacles to an effective system abound. James Davis, California's state geologist, sees benefits to the early-warning program but cautions against raising the public's expectations.

He points out that the system will be of little use for quakes that happen too close to home. For instance, the 1994 Northridge quake hit 25 miles outside of Los Angeles, killing 57 people and causing $40 billion in damage. If you live near a quake's epicenter, no warning will be early enough.

Davis also notes that a 1991 survey found that many Southern Californians felt the cost of implementing an early-warning system did not justify the potential gains.

The brunt of that cost, which has not been determined, will be borne by corporations and local governments that would subscribe to the alert service.

The USGS and Caltech are conducting a survey of potential users, focusing on schools, emergency services, transport and utilities, and health care institutions. The results will decide the project's chances. Says Caltech's Goltz, "It all depends on whether it is feasible and whether it is wanted."

He expects a pilot program with up to 10 organizations to begin by the end of the year and says that if all goes well an alert system could be in place within a decade. Someday, the Big One may be preceded by a "One Minute Warning" on your computer screen.

John McLaughlin writes the "Planet Web" column for TheStandard.com.

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