Hamas Gains Power in Palestinian Election

Byline: Scott Wilson

Washington Post staff writer Scott Wilson , who is based in Jerusalem, discusses the significance of Hamas's win in the Palestinian elections, its impact on Arab-Israeli relations and the prospects for peace in the region.

Submit your questions and comments before or during today's discussion.

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Scott Wilson: Greetings form Jerusalem. I've spent most of the day in the West Bank trying to get a sense of the fallout from Hamas' stunning victory in parliamentary elections earlier this week. Looking forward to your questions. I'll get to them.

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Brookeville, Md.: Mr. Wilson,

Two questions (please):

Is it unprecedented where a group with a violent history similar to Hamas has been able to turn the corner and govern effectively and have relations with neighboring countries?

These Islamic countries have a propensity to allow armed attacks and terrorism against Israel by groups operating within their own borders country. These countries have, in the past, attempted to dodge accountability for such attacks. Do you feel the political wing of Hamas will attempt to disassociate itself with the militant wing when an attack occurs?

Thanks.

Scott Wilson: Interesting questions. There is actually a precedent for this right here in the Palestinian territories. The PLO, whose mainstay of Fatah, was designated a terrorist organization by much of the world until the late 1980s. Israel outlawed it, then signed the 1993 Oslo accords with it - setting up the Palestinian Authority. Whether it has carried out good government is debatable. But it does have relations with the rest of the world. As for accountability, Israeli officials actually see, as one upside to Hamas' victory, a new opportunity to hold the political wing of Hamas accountable for the acts of its military wing. As an analyst told me yesterday, "Now there is one address for both" - the Palestinian Authority.

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Alexandria, Va.: The way George Bush snubbed the Palestinians and Abu Mazen, is it surprising that they voted for Hamas?

Scott Wilson: Fatah and Hamas agree on one thing: The Bush administration's steady condemnation of Hamas helped it at the polls. Fatah also complains that the U.S. government's lack of pressure on Israel to ease the occupation in the West Bank - ie, removing checkpoints, turning over Palestinian cities to Palestinian security services - helped hamas as well by making negotiations seem useless.

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Washington, D.C.: Has there been any buzz about possible fraud? I know that several reputable pollsters predicted a slim but solid win by the Fatah party.

More importantly, and I know this is a wide reaching question, what will need to happen on the part of Israel, Palestine, and the US for the peace process to move forward?

Thank you for considering my questions.

Scott Wilson: No claims of fraud after first day - made by Hamas against Fatah for keeping the polls in Jerusalem open longer. The exit polling was abysmal. I thnk it was a rersult of the fact that many Hamas voters refuse to say who they voted for - out of fear, primarily. As for moving the peace process forward, it's important to note it wasn't moving forward before these elections. Israelis and Palestinians hadn't talked even about talks for months. This does complicate those efforts, though, to put it mildly.

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Burbank, Calif.: Might the new Palestinian government present Israel with a rare opportunity? Negotiated terms with a Hams led government would more likely win more lastig approval from the Palestinian people. What are the possibilities that would bring Israel and the next Palestinian government to seek and achieve a lasting agreement?

Scott Wilson: There is a current of thinking in the Israeli government, not very public yet, that agrees with your notion. That is, Hamas and the politicial feelings it embodies existed before these elections and that any peace agreement signed without taking the Isalmic movement into consideration would not be worth much. So some Israeli officials say that this (bringing Hamas into mainstream government) was essentially a necessary step in a long-term process toward an enforceable peace agreement, though the short-term fallout could be very messy.

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Rockville, Md.: Hello,

Isn't it true that Israel was instrumental in the creation of Hamas in the late 1970s. Tel Aviv gave direct and indirect financial aid to Hamas over a period of years to undermine Yassir Arafat's Fatah party and the PLO. Why is Israel now upset about a Hamas victory? The Israelis themselves created this Frankenstein. Now the monster has turned against its creator.

Scott Wilson: This is true. Israel nurtured the Islamic movement as an alternative to the secular-nationalist PLO at the time. And, yes, be careful what you wish for...

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Washington, D.C.: No one has yet mentioned (from what I've read) a parallel between Hamas' participation in the Palestinian government and Sinn Fein's in Ireland - a process that took a very long time to come to fruition, but eventually led to a more peaceful result. Do you see a similarity there, and if so, what are your thoughts?

Scott Wilson: Good point and I have seen this mentioned in a few places. Guerrilla movenents in Latin America went through similar transformations. As noted in an earlier post, many Israelis see this as an opportunity to "tame" Hamas and turn them into a political party, though pressing it to disarm while Israel remains in the West Bank will be a long process.

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Anonymous: Most of the analyses of the election I've read and heard so far have focused on allegations of corruption and cronyism among Fatah officials, more than popular frustration with Israeli occupation, as reasons for Hamas's win. Your earlier answer was the first I'd heard of anti-U.S. feelings helping Hamas in the election. Benjamin Netanyahu told one interviewer last night that Hamas was emboldened by Sharon's unilateral withdrawal policy. I could see how what Netanyahu perceives as "soft" policies could be one of many possible explanations for Hamas carrying out moreterrorist acts, but don't see how Israel acting too "softly" led to more Palestinians voting for Hamas.

Scott Wilson: What Netanyahu is referring to is the fact that Hamas, rather than Fatah, received most of the politicial credit for Sharon's Gaza withdrawal. This was because Sharon evacuated the strip without receiving anything from the Palestinians in return - allowing Hamas to say "we drove them out with arms." Mahmoud Abbas would have benefitted politicially if the withdrawal had been negotiated through him, as head of the PLO, and he could have told voters that peace talks do show results. But the Gaza evacuation was conceived at a time of violent uprising when Yasser Arafat led Fatah and the PLO, and Israel wasn't talking to him. So not so much that Israel was being soft, but not supporting negotiatons that Abbas has staked his presidency on.

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Scotch Plains, N.J.: What do you make of the pre-election of Israelis showing that they favor talking to Hamas (48-43!!)?

Scott Wilson: The gulf between public opinion and the Israeli leadership opinion is often pretty big. Israelis generally want to talk, want to resolve the standoff, so are eager to talk to whoever can make an agreement work. The leadership has a variety of reasons it gives for not doing so, most of them tracing back to security concerns. So not that surprising.

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: What impact will the Hamas election success have on the Israeli election?

Scott Wilson: Good question difficult to answer. Lots of political criticism in the asir these days, most directed at Sharon's stand-in, Ehud Olmert, for leaving Gaza, whihc the hawkish right believes strengthened Hamas. Could help the Likud, but really depends on how the next few weeks play out.

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Southern Maryland: I think the Hamas victory is sad. I've long believed that the two-state solution is the way to go, since the Palestinians don't want to live under Israeli rule and the Israelis don't want them in their country. I don't want to believe the claim by American conservatives that all Palestianians lust for Israeli blood, but the Hamas victory makes the idea more credible. Since America openly supported the opposition in the election, maybe the Palestinian voters saw themselves as voting against America.

Scott Wilson: I can tell you that in the mosques in the days leading up to the vote Hamas was passing out pamphlets with a long list of anti-Hamas comments made by President Bush and other U.S. officials. They clearly thought the Bush administration's position against them was a campaign plus.

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Fayetteville, Ark.: Isn't this a big step for the Muslim Brotherhood, the advancement of which is good for most Muslims?

Scott Wilson: It is a big step for the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot. I think many Muslims would argue whether the brotherhood's views on the role of Islam in political life is in their best interest, though.

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Fairfax, Va.: The past year, didn't the Israeli take out the some of the leadership of Hamas or was it Hezboallah. How does that now fit into the equation. Won't that now make it more difficult for Israel to take out a member of the leadership of Hamas if they are now a part of the new government. How would Israel justify the killing of a Palestinian Hamas cabinet member?

Scott Wilson: Last year, Israel assassinated Sheik Ahmed Yassin and Abdul Aziz Rantisi, Hamas leaders in Gaza. I would imagine that it would be harder to carry out those kinds of assassinations with Hamas in government.

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Arlington, Va.: Dear Mr. Wilson, Thanks for your time to answer our questions. First of all, I'd like to say that I feel very happy for the Palestinians pulling off the first real democratic election in the Arab world (no matter what the outcome) - and this is a real feat in particular when looking at the daily hardships they face with the Israeli occupation.

When it comes to the world's reaction, do you think groups may stop giving aid to the PA? This seems like it could result in a Catch-22 for the Palestinians: decent aid with a corrupt government (Fatah) or no aid with a (hopefully) not-corrupt government that has actually done many excellent community services for Palestinians in the past (built hospitals, schools, mosques). It seems the Palestinian people are in jeopardy of never seeing foreign aid - however little it is (relative) to U.S. aid to Israel.

Scott Wilson: You raise a vey good point. I've covered elections in a lot of countries, and this one was remarkable for how cleanly it was carried out given the real potential for violence and motivation for fraud. Palestinians should be congratulated for that, in my view. It is unlcear what the status of foreign aid will be, though the $1 billion a year or so the Palestinian Authority receives from donors is its lifeblood. If that dries up, so does the government.

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Arlington, Va.: Am I the only pro-Israel observer who welcomes Hamas' victory? The fact is, if there is ever going to be a real final peace agreement, Hamas will have to be on board. This result should therefore only anticipate the Hamas-Israel dialogue that is necessary to any such agreement.

Scott Wilson: You are not the only one - see previous comments - but your analysis is a sophisticated one that some Israelis appear not to share. The trouble of course will be getting to an agreement in the first place.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: How do you see future Iran's support for Hamas? Mainly money influx (especially when the U.S. and even Europe seem to be hesitant about new transfers to PA)? It's hard to beleive that Israel with get eye-blind on any Iran-Hamas military links. And by the way, I guess it is Iran's backing for Hamas that make this situation very different from Sinn Fein.

Scott Wilson: Well, Sinn Fein had its foreign sources of money, too, but Iran's role is a big question. Islamic Jihad, far smaller than Hamas, is more open about its Iranian support. Hard to know how much Hamas gets from Iran, and there is tension between hamas and Islamic Jihad on some levels because Hamas believes Islamic Jihad is to beholden to Iran's Shiite clergy.

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Grand Rapids, Mich.: In retrospect, should the win by Hamas really have been a surprise? I remember reading about 3-4 years ago that a poll among Palestinians showed a support for suicide bombings of over 70%. If that is the case, shouldn't this election result have been forseen?

Scott Wilson: It's very hard to see tis vote as an endorsement of suicide bombings. Hamas has not carried one out for some time - more than a year, I believe - and its popularity has risen over that time. Mostly, from what I've heard, the vote was a protest against Fatah and an endorsement of Hamas' years of chairty work during tough economic times and its superior organization.

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Johnstown, Pa.: Thank you for holding this chat.

President Bush said that he valued democracy and democratic elections in the Middle East when he was asked about the Hamas victory in a democratic election; however, he later stated that Mahmoud Abbas should remain in office. How can we reconcile these two statements?

Can you comment on the hypocrasy between these two statements and about how it will look to anyone who lives in the Palestinian territories?

Thank you.

Scott Wilson: Hypocrisy is word you hear a lot in this part of the world when the Bush administration's push for democracy in the region is raised. I thnk the president took a number of questions on this point at his news conference yesterday.

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Washington, D.C.: Why should the Palestinians care whether or not the U.S. and Israel will negotiate with them?

We do support democracy, right? And they DID win.

Scott Wilson: The short answer is they want an independent Palestinian state. They can't get one without negotiations given Israel's military superiority. They want 7,000 Palestinians prisoners released from Israeli jails, fewer military checkpoints in the West Bank, and free passage for cargo out of Gaza. These points require contact with Israel, which has very real security concerns affecting some of them.

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Arlington, Va.: How serious is Hamas about bringing Islamic law to the Palestinian territories? Do you see this happening, when apparently the majority of the Palestinians are religious moderates?

Scott Wilson: Good question, one that came up a lot in my reporting today. In theory, they are serious about it. In practice, it won't be high on the agenda for the reason you mentioned. Many secular Palestinians voted Hamas, and not because they want sharia in the West Bank and Gaza.

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Dubai, UAE: I am curious about the reactions of the rest of the Middle East. I can imagine the Arab governments are trembling with fear right now as this provides a real shake-up in the region - being truly democratic AND resulting in an Islamic government - a mix of what the current regimes continually try to crush. What have you observed or what do you think? Thanks.

Scott Wilson: I'm in my own little bubble here, but traveled quite a bit in the Arab world last year. The point you make is a huge concern, and one reason many Arab governments (Saudi Arabia and Egypt spring to mind) want the Bush administration to go a little slower in its democracy push. In Saudi municipal elections last year - their first - Islamists made huge showings. So did the Brotherhood in Egypt's recent elections. These Islamic parties have been working for years for the chance at free elections.

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Alexandria, Va.: Is the victory of Hamas a consequence of our invasion of Iraq? Did we take our eye off the ball and by neglect, gave rise to Hamas?

Scott Wilson: Our invasion of Iraq has, generally speaking, energized Islamic parties in the region, including Hamas. It's hard to say more than that.

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Vancouver, Canada: What evidence is there to support the assertion that the Bush administration's condemnation of Hamas helped it at the polls?

Does the Bush team completely fail to understand how deeply resented it has become throughout the rest of the world?

Scott Wilson: Mostly just anecdotal evidence given the poor state of polling here. But Hamnas, which certainly knows their people, featured the Bush administration's negative comments in their campagin. So that's some proof.

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Scott Wilson: Thanks a lot everyone for your questions. Hope to join you again soon. Now back to work....Regards.

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