Oddson

THE first rule of successful punting is never follow the pack. Whether it be supposedly invincible England travelling to Murrayfield to complete the Grand Slam, or three-times lucky Michael Schumacher on pole against the McLarens at Silverstone, you can be sure that the sure thing is surely no value.

A simple principle perhaps, but nowhere does it apply more than to the Champions League final, where Valencia meet Real Madrid in the first final between two teams from the same country. According to the world and his wife, Real are a shoo-in, with Valencia simply making up the numbers.

But I disagree, and not just because I've never backed a team which included either Steve McManaman or Darren Anderton. Just what form is the faith in Real based on? Certainly they have the pedigree, but just how many of this team were there when Real won this competition two years ago? Not enough to make the difference is the answer.

And what of their form this year? Real struggled under John Toshack before a players' coup saw him replaced with the understated and organisationally brilliant Vicente del Bosque.

But Valencia have been an even more inspiring story. Having signed Argentinian coach Hector Cuper for a fortune from Real Mallorca, they lost their first four games in comprehensive fashion before scraping a home 0-0 draw. But in six games against Real Madrid and Barcelona, Valencia have won three, drawn one and lost two, both against Barcelona - if you could call the second-leg result against Barca a defeat in the context of their 4-1 first-leg win. Importantly, Valencia have this season won 3-2 at the Bernabeu and drawn 1-1 with Real at home.

It is my belief that Valencia have the necessary qualities to once again bloody Real's nose. This inexpensively assembled side also have the sort of team spirit and manic work ethic which has served to paper over the deficiencies of Manchester United so well.

As for Real, I believe over-confidence will be a major problem. Few of their fans seem able to even contemplate defeat at the hands of perennial also-rans Valencia. Yet for much of the season, Real have been dire. They have also developed a counter-attacking style which is in many ways similar to that of Valencia. This, I believe, means that the final will be a low-scoring affair, as most of the two sides' recent away matches have been, and I'd certainly look at a cautious sell of total goals with City, who are quoting 2.4-2.7.

Recommendations: 1pt sell Real at best price (0.2 with Sporting); 0.5 sell of total goals with City (2.4).

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