Vote on flag desecration may be very close

WASHINGTON -- The Senate may be within one or two votes of passing a constitutional amendment to ban desecration of the U.S. flag, clearing the way for ratification by the states, a key opponent of the measure said Tuesday.

"It's scary close," said Terri Schroeder of the American Civil Liberties Union, which opposes the amendment. "People think it's something that's never going to happen. . . . The reality is we're very close to losing this battle."

Countered Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, the amendment's chief sponsor, "It's important that we venerate the national symbol of our country. Burning, urinating, defecating on the flag -- this is not speech. This is offensive conduct."

Congress regularly has debated the issue since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a Texas flag desecration law in 1989 and its own Flag Protection Act the next year. But until now, it has failed to muster the two-thirds vote needed in both the House of Representatives and the Senate before states try to ratify the measure.

Next week, the House will vote on the amendment for a seventh time. If history is a guide, it will pass for a seventh time. That's when the spotlight switches to the Senate, where the amendment has always died.

But this time may be different. Amendment supporters say last year's election expanding the Senate Republican majority to 55 has buoyed their hopes for passage. Five freshmen senators -- Richard Burr of North Carolina, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, John Thune of South Dakota and David Vitter of Louisiana - - voted for the amendment as House members and plan to do so again.

They will be joined by at least five Democrats who have co- sponsored the resolution, including Dianne Feinstein of California and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Both are up for re-election next year.

Not all senators have publicly declared their support or opposition.

In 2000, when the Senate last took up the matter, 63 voted for the amendment, four short of a two-thirds majority.

"We're going to have deeper support for this, and the intensity is growing," Thune said Tuesday, which was Flag Day. "There's momentum."

Norm Ornstein, a political analyst at the business-oriented American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, says he expects "a cliffhanger." He says Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., is eager to bring up the issue, and some Democrats may be too nervous to oppose it.

Scenes of foreigners burning American flags may be common on TV, but such desec- ration is rare in this country. The Citizens Flag Alliance, an advocacy group that supports a constitutional amendment, reports a decline in flag desecration incidents, with only one this year.

The Senate Judiciary Com- mittee may not hold a hearing until around the July 4th holiday, and a floor vote hasn't been scheduled.

University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato is skeptical about the amendment's prospects. "They may come close," he says, "but I would put good money on the likelihood that, once again, it won't be sent to the states."

If it is, though, "it is almost a foregone conclusion that the states would ratify" the amendment, says John Vile, a constitutional law expert at Middle Tennessee State University and editor of "Encyclopedia of Civil Liberties in America."

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