Football: Bye-bye Bayern - you're in for an ideal home show

THERE can be no suggestion that we have an easy route to the Champions League Final in Milan.

At the same time, in drawing Bayern Munich and facing a likely semi-final clash with Real Madrid, the possibility of an all-English Final is still on the cards.

But we mustn't get carried away and start thinking four games ahead in what has already been a long, hard campaign in Europe.

To be honest, we're going to need a tremendous kick up the backside to make it that far!

Overall our performances in Europe this season have been poor - especially away from home where goals have proved hard to come by.

If we are going to confirm people's belief that we are among the favourites to lift the title, we have to get past two teams who are also strongly favoured.

But United like it tough - when the challenge becomes stronger the team somehow find that added strength to pull through.

I have always felt that we increase in strength in the latter stages of the competition, but so far there has been little evidence to suggest I'm right on this occasion.

We've staggered and fallen over the doormat to get this far and in facing Bayern Munich, if we don't raise our game to the level expected of the team, they will have every chance of getting revenge on us for beating them in the final two seasons ago.

I'm quite happy to be at home for Tuesday's first leg, though. Of the three notable occasions when we've failed to live up to expectations at a crucial stage of this competition, we've always played the first game away.

Last year a 0-0 draw at the current champions Madrid was not enough and we lost the return leg at Old Trafford. A couple of years earlier we lost to Monaco at the same stage after a 0-0 draw away from home.

And when Borussia Dortmund reached the final at our expense in the semis a few years back - you guessed it - we played the first leg in Germany.

It would be wrong to suggest that statistics - and luck - don't play a part in your destiny. Two seasons ago they had already put the Bayern ribbons on the cup before the dramatic late intervention of our two substitutes, Teddy Sheringham and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

As coincidence would have it, on our way to the final at the Nou Camp that year we also disposed of the two favourites for the competition - the Italian sides Inter Milan and Juventus.

It's interesting to see that one of Bayern's most influential players, Stefan Effenberg, has already got his lederhosen and cowboy boots on in preparation to dance on our grave.

I can assure you of one thing - they might have revenge on their minds, but if they dwell on the past and are not totally professional against us they will come unstuck.

Bayern are well organised. They like to frustrate teams away from home and kill them off in the return leg. They leave nothing to chance - the way they play will be predictable but nonetheless effective.

I know our manager has the utmost respect for their coach, Otmar Hitzfield. Over the years they have become quite close and they have mutual respect. But friendship counts for nothing in a game like this.

I think we have been at pains to play down this clash because of what happened in the Nou Camp in 1999, but rest assured we are firmly focused on the tie.

Even a 1-0 win will put us in a good position to go through. That would mean if we got an early goal in Germany they would have to score three to go through.

So we're confident, but not arrogant to the point that we think the game will be a formality.

It's interesting that people seem to think Leeds have a considerably easier draw than us. To be honest, if there was one team we wanted to avoid it was Deportivo La Coruna.

Last season's Spanish champions have moved quietly into the quarter-finals and one suspects they are destined to follow the same path as Valencia, who reached last year's final.

While I admire Leeds' progress I can't help thinking it's come at a cost. Sacrificing League form is one thing but unless they go on to win the European Cup there is a good chance they will end the season with nothing to show for it.

Arsenal are my dark horses. While we may have stumbled over the doormat, they tripped over it. But there are so many similarities between Arsene Wenger's side and Juventus a few years ago.

I remember Sir Alex telling us we would rue the day we failed to knock Juventus out in the group stages. They went through by the skin of their teeth but still got to the final.

Arsenal cannot be under-estimated. I know we beat them emphatically at Old Trafford in the League but I will be surprised if they don't beat Valencia.

So a Manchester United v Arsenal final is not beyond the realms of possibility - and what a game that would be.

UNITED v BAYERN IN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Champions League Final (26.5.99) Bayern Munich 1 Manchester United 2

(Basler 6) (Sheringham 90, Solskjaer 90)

Champions League Group Stage

(9.12.98)

Manchester United 1 Bayern Munich 1

(Keane 43) (Salihamidzic 56)

Champions League Group Stage

(30.9.98)

Bayern Munich 2 Manchester United 2

(Elber 11, 90) (Yorke 29, Scholes 48)

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