America on the defensive

AMERICA WAS, until recently, the world's sole Superpower. However, this concept has lost its relevance and meaning: The world now is multipolar. Although the U.S. prevails in nuclear kill capacity and maintains troops in 135 of the world's 192 countries, governments distrust and dismiss it.

International crises escape our understanding and elude our control. The Bush Administration has been frustrated in Iraq and Afghanistan. It cannot halt nuclear proliferation in Noah Korea and Iran. In 2001, the U.S. spent between $300-$400,000,000,000 on defense, but failed to prevent attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C., with fatalities 10 times greater than any other international terrorist incident in history.

Canada has announced it will not participate in the U.S. national missile defense shield. Canadian officials were outraged when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice asserted, without evidence, that terrorists were entering the U.S. from Canada. Ottawa fears that American companies extracting its oil also will plunder and destroy its environment.

Venezuelan Pres. Hugo Chavez denounces Washington at every opportunity. Calling himself a "Fidelista," he welcomes Cuban leader Fidel Castro's military advisors, pumps up the sluggish Cuban economy with oil profits, and plans to buy 50 MiG-29s and 100,000 AK-47s from Russia, as well as frigates and tanks from Spain. Venezuela has been the third largest supplier of petroleum to the U.S., but Chavez threatens to sell the oil to the People's Republic of China.

More than half of Australians recently polled indicate they think the U.S. poses as great a security threat as Islamic fundamentalism, and over 70% say Australia should avoid following the U.S. into a war with China over Taiwan.

American power in the world was bound to decline after a long ascent. This loss has occurred over many years, as the threat of Communism diminished. The Bush Administration now is using international terrorism to rally people and nations, though less convincingly, or effectively.

In July, 2001, Russia and China negotiated a 20-year treaty of friendship and military alliance. In the event of an attack by a third party, each country agreed to meet to discuss the common danger, implying one would defend the other. NATO and SEATO treaties contain similar provisions. Beijing and Moscow are determined to prevent the U.S. from gaining hegemony in Europe and Asia. This alliance, which received little notice in America, created a second pole in the new multipolar world. Relations between the former allies have warmed, once again becoming "as close as lips and teeth." Moscow is providing the PRC with oil, electricity, investments, and the most modern military equipment, including submarines, Sovremennyi-class destroyers, Sukhoi-30 jet fighters, and technology for DF21-A and DF41 missiles armed with nuclear warheads. Thousands of Russian military technicians live and work in Chinese cities.

Other nations have joined this alliance. In April, China and India negotiated a "strategic partnership" in order "to reshape the world order." Bilateral trade will rise from $13,600,000,000 in 2004 to $20,000,000,000 by 2008. Moscow plans to provide Sukhoi and MiG-29 fighters to New Delhi, which quickly rejected a U.S. offer to sell it F-16s. Pakistan, traditionally close to China, has negotiated with Beijing for four F-22P frigates. Minsk has supplied Beijing with antiaircraft systems and tracks to transport IRBMs and ICBMs. Russia accepts more than 60% of Belarusian exports and delivers an even greater share of imports to its client.

Washington had expected help from China to settle its dispute with Noah Korea over nuclear weapons. The Chinese control 70% of North Korea's energy supply and provide 40% of its food imports. Beijing, however, has exerted no pressure on Pyongyang to end this standoff.

Despite the nuclear threat from the North, the U.S. hopes to withdraw one-third of its 37,000 troops from South Korea by December. Seoul seeks reconciliation with Pyongyang by pursuing softer "Sunshine" and "Peace and Prosperity" policies.

Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin has dismissed U.S. criticism of the breakup of the Yukos oil conglomerate and his centralization of state power. He has cooperated with Pres. Bush in the war against terrorism and, in so doing, gained acquiescence from Washington to continue the brutal, decade-long conflict in Chechnya. Moscow plans to sell Syria SA-18 surface-to-air missiles, assuring the Bush Administration, as if it could, that the weapons will stay out of the hands of Hezbollah. The missiles will be mounted on vehicles, but easily can be disassembled and shoulder-fired.

Russia has refused to end construction of the Iranian Bushehr power plant, which can produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. Putin insists that the plutonium will be used for peaceful purposes only, another doubtful proposition.

Russia needed oil prices to top $18 a barrel to balance its federal budget. By April, the price exceeded $58 a barrel, and the country, or at least a modest middle class, was thriving. Russia hopes to double its gross domestic product by 2010. Its current annual growth in GDP (6.9%) exceeds that of the U.S. and European Union.

Russia has its problems, to be sure. In 2004, capital flight totaled nearly $8,000,000,000. Inflation runs eight percent a year. Moscow News has reported that, out of 20,000,000 men capable of working, 1,000,000 are in jail, 4,000,000 serve in the military, 5,000,000 are unemployed, 4,000,000 are alcoholics, and another 1,000,000 are drug addicts. Most Russians remain poor and the economy is riddled with corruption. Russia's Minister of the Interior has estimated that organized crime controls at least 500 large enterprises in key industries.

The GDP of the PRC has been expanding seven to eight percent annually, and China is projected to become the world's largest economy by 2050. It ranks third in global trade behind the U.S. and Germany. Beijing is competing vigorously with the U S. for petroleum to fuel its industrial surge.

Backed by Moscow, the PRC has increased pressure on Taiwan, promising to invade if the island declares independence from the Mainland. This threat was incorporated in an antisecession law drafted in March. Communist Chinese leaders have warned that Taiwan must come under their control by 2020.

U.S. needs Chinese markets

The PRC has become an enormous market for the U.S., with annual bilateral turnover near $100,000,000,000. U.S. businessmen argue that trade establishes friendly relations and inhibits conflict. The Chinese, on the other hand, believe America will concede major issues to maintain these lucrative deals.

Russia and China opposed the invasion of Iraq, but their criticism has been muted, presumably because they are delighted to see the U.S. bogged down in another war. In April, 2005, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov warned the U.S. against meddling in the affairs of other nations: "Democracy is not a potato that you can transplant from one kitchen garden to another."

Ukraine, which warmed to Washington with the election victory of Viktor Yushchenko following the middle-class "cappuccino" revolution, has provided Tehran with 1,200-km medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia and Israel.

New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman is convinced the U.S. is losing its technological lead. The playing field is leveling, and this flattening represents as great a challenge as communism. Quoting Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, he notes that, in 2001, India graduated nearly 1,000,000 more students from college than the U.S. China conferred twice as many bachelor's degrees as the U.S., and six times as many Chinese are majoring in engineering.

After Sputnik was launched in 1957, experts made similarly unfavorable comparisons between the number of engineers graduated in the U.S. and USSR, but the Soviets never narrowed the technological gap. Friedman may be exaggerating the likelihood of falling behind, but the possibility cannot be dismissed. India and China are making tremendous strides in creating software and advancing biomedicine. Moscow hopes its own fledgling information technology industry will take wing, producing $40,000,000,000 in goods and services by 2015.

The third pole, though geographically diffuse, is Al Qaeda. This organization operated in 70 countries before 9/11, but, as nations dismantle terrorist cells, its ranks have been devastated. In some cases, the U.S. assisted governments locate and capture such terrorist leaders as Abu Zubaydah, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and Abu Faraj al-Libbi. The CIA and FBI have exchanged information with foreign intelligence services, but the countries themselves are rooting out the terrorists and, in the process, political opponents as well. Some 2,100 persons were taken into custody in Morocco after suicide bombings in Casablanca in May, 2003, even though few of the detainees were responsible for the attacks.

The CIA and FBI recently prepared a joint report acknowledging that 9/11 was a unique event, unsupported by a domestic Al Qaeda network. The group does not have the capability to stage a major attack in this country, although many nations remain vulnerable.

More troubling, allies disagree with Washington about the terrorist danger. Britain, France, and the Netherlands have been irritated by repeated cancellations of flights to the U.S. from unfounded fears of hijacking. In April, the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, France, criticized the U.S. for torturing prisoners at Guantanamo. It called on Washington to end secret detentions and renditions (the dispatch of suspects to other countries for interrogation without judicial supervision). The Council accused the U.S. of having "betrayed its own highest principles in the zeal with which it has attempted to pursue the war on terror."

According to the Department of State, significant acts of international terrorism rose sharply, from 175 in 2003 to 655 in 2004. The annual number of incidents can fluctuate wildly, and most of those in 2004 had nothing to do with Al Qaeda. In 2004, 325 of the attacks occurred in Kashmir, and another 191 were perpetrated--largely by Sunnis--against foreigners in Iraq, leaving just 139 elsewhere. Americans must accept the fact that political violence exists, and one no more can end terrorism than exorcise evil from the world.

Pakistan is a puzzle. Since 9/11, Washington has overlooked that Islamabad armed and trained the Taliban and instigated numerous terrorist attacks in India. With unconditional support from the Bush Administration, Pres. Pervez Musharraf has stepped up the violence in disputed Kashmir. The government has extradited important Al Qaeda operatives to the U.S., yet has been reluctant to track Osama bin Laden.

Al Qaeda has shown interest in developing "dirty bombs," but there is no evidence whatever that it has acquired advanced technology or nuclear materials, has the money to buy them, or the expertise to assemble and use them. Still, governments act as if Al Qaeda remains a serious threat. For this reason alone, despite deep divisions and obvious weaknesses, terrorists command significant power.

The European Union occupies the fourth pole in this brave new world. Since the mid-1990s, household wealth has increased in the United Kingdom, France, and Italy; less so in Germany. The 25-member EU boasts a combined GDP totaling $7.8 trillion, and its economy is 85% that of the U.S. In 2000, the EU controlled almost 20% of the world's GDP, and the organization is broadening its membership and goals.

The Toronto Globe & Mail has reported that, under international trade rules, nations hurt by the illegal actions of their trading partners can retaliate with punitive duties. The EU is penalizing imports of U.S. machinery, paper, corn, eyeglass frames, stationery, and clothing. Canada, which does not belong to the EU, has targeted imports of American cigarettes, oysters, pork, and fish. These measures retaliate for the antidumping law that tacked duties on foreign products entering the U.S.

After the World Trade Organization ruled in 2003 that the antidumping provision was illegal, Washington promised to amend its trade laws, but businesses filing complaints are awarded the duties, and the Bush Administration plans to let U.S. companies keep part of this money.

Transatlantic divisions will enlarge and magnify. French Pres. Jacques Chirac, no isolationist, has led the effort to end the arms embargo on the People's Republic of China, a move strenuously opposed by the Bush Administration. Washington plans to withdraw 55,000 troops from Germany to base in the Caucasus, Africa, and Central Asia areas, for the most part, peripheral to Great Power politics. At the same time, sentiment grows in Europe for creation of an indigenous fighting force. France and Germany opposed the invasion of Iraq in March, 2003, having recommended delay and caution. It did not help Pres. Bush that there were no weapons of mass destruction, terrorist plots concocted by Saddam Hussein, or ties between Iraq and bin Laden.

It does the U.S. no good that Washington has not been able to end the conflict quickly. The U.S. deployed too few troops and too little armor. It faces more sophisticated enemy attacks, and its strategy of training 200,000 indigenous security forces seems unlikely to succeed, based on past guerrilla conflicts and the fact that 1,500,000 adult, male Sunni Iraqis are prepared to defend their political interests. Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Ukraine will withdraw contingents from Iraq this year.

There is a major difference between a preoccupation with Iraq and an occupation. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's list of Shiite religious parties won the parliamentary election in Iraq in January, not the coalition led by Iyad Allawi, former CIA operative and choice of the Bush Administration. Allawi's party placed third, winning a mere 40 of 275 seats.

Columnist Tony Karon has noted that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld insists U.S. troops will remain in Iraq as long as the insurgency continues. American military officers on the ground believe the insurgency will continue as long as U.S. troops remain.

Experts speculate that, somewhere down the line, the Iraqis simply will ask the U.S. to leave. These specialists do not realize that Washington will refuse, having by then expended so many lives and so much money on this troublesome country that withdrawal would be political suicide at home.

Iraq's never ending conflict

The war will go on and on. A Shiite government in Iraq may draw closer to the Shiite regime in Iran; the civil war certainly will expand; Kurds and Shiites could well lose faith in U.S. motives or its ability ever to impose law and order on the nation--or just to provide electricity, gas, and water. The U.S. probably no longer can replace dictatorial with democratic regimes. It is enough not to arm dictators.

The Iraqi war has consequences for Europe, where it is immensely unpopular. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi may fall, as did the Jose Maria Aznar government in Spain, over support for Washington. Berlusconi's center-right coalition fared poorly in regional elections in April. Center-left leader Romano Prodi plans to challenge Berlusconi next year. In May, Tony Blair was reelected British prime minister, but backing Bush harmed him. Labeled "the President's poodle," he lost Labour more than half its majority in the House of Commons, falling from 161 to 66 seats.

The Bush Administration imagines democracy inundating the Middle East. At the end of April, after 29 years of occupation, Damascus withdrew 6,000 soldiers from Lebanon. The Administration congratulated itself, but it was the February assassination of Pres. Rafik Hariri that triggered protests from Lebanese Christians, not demands for Syrian withdrawal from Washington.

Conservative analysts even have asserted that the promise of democracy in Iraq has forced other Middle Eastern countries to introduce representative elections. While Saudi Arabia held more democratic elections last winter, the regime undemocratically was arresting scores of its political rivals.

Washington will not benefit if popular democracy replaces a cooperative ally with an Islamic fundamentalist regime. Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak receives annual payments from Washington totaling $2,200,000,000. Since 1979, when Egypt signed a peace accord with Israel, the U.S. has given Cairo almost $50,000,000,000 to observe the agreement. It is in the interest of the U.S. that Mubarak's son, Gamal, who favors "well-tailored suits and foreign-educated advisors," continues his father's policies. The CIA personally paid Jordan's King Hussein $1,000,000,000 annually for 20 years to support U.S. initiatives in the Middle East. This was not democratic and did not represent Jordanian wishes, but it worked.

Projection of U.S. military power in the world has been maddening. This country experienced significant military reverses in the Bay of Pigs; the seizure of the Pueblo in 1968; in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia; in the failed rescue of hostages in Tehran in 1980; in Beirut bombings in April and October of 1983; the downing of an Iranian civilian aircraft by the guided-missile cruiser Vincennes in 1988; and the Somalia famine-relief debacle in 1993. Even the 1962 Cuban missile crisis ended with a Kennedy Administration promise to stop harassing Castro. The Soviets eventually stationed submarines armed with nuclear missiles off our Atlantic coast to compensate for bases lost in Cuba. Perhaps undefined purpose was responsible for so many failures, unenlightened generalship, some lapse of common sense, or lack of plain dumb luck.

The U.S. remains the world's largest economy. It has depended on robust financial institutions and hefty monetary reserves to protect its interests abroad. The battle is being lost. The Federal budget deficit reached a record $412,000,000,000 in 2004, and is estimated to top $427,000,000,000 in 2005, although Republican optimists believe it will decline to $207,000,000,000 by 2010. Washington has racked up a national debt of $7.8 trillion, almost 20% of the entire net worth of the country. The U.S. is headed for a record current accounts (trade) deficit of $675,000,000,000 in 2005. China has accumulated a trade surplus exceeding $125,000,000,000, the largest trade imbalance with any one country in U.S. history. American citizens have run up credit-card debts of more than $60,000,000,000; amassed business debts of eight trillion dollars and household liabilities over $10 trillion; and piled up state and municipal debts amounting to $1.7 trillion. Foreigners currently own nearly half of marketable Treasury securities and a quarter of U.S. corporate bonds. Imports account for almost 65% of the oil consumed in the U.S. annually.

What is remarkable and paradoxical is that developing countries with high rates of saving are lending enormous sums to the industrial world, particularly the U.S. This wrong-way flow of funds will not last forever. One day, foreigners will grow weary of propping up the weak dollar.

All of these powers have been frustrated in their imperial ambitions, not just the U.S. under Bush. One cannot say with certainty that a multipolar world is safer than one ruled by a single Superpower, but it is more complicated and less susceptible to intimidation and force. Many centers of power may reduce the responsibilities and burdens on Washington.

The U.S. could recover its international prestige by acting in concert with other nations, exhibiting less combativeness, treating allies with respect, and aiding the poor with compassion, generosity, and through thoughtful and judicious decisions.

On the other hand, it may be just as well that American power is waning. That power was achieved at tremendous cost and sacrifice, frequently without good cause or lasting effect, gathering, by its labors, "grapes of thorns, or figs of thistles." A country ought not be judged by its territorial expanse or the projection of its power, but by the welfare and security of its citizens, the level of its culture, and the civility of its society. Episodic crusades have undermined America's international standing and power, and now divert its promise and national purpose.

John L. Scherer, a Minneapolis, Minn.-based freelance writer, edited the yearbook Terrorism: An Annual Survey in 1982-83 and the quarterly Terrorism from 1986 to 2001.

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