Assessing childbearing trends

The baby boomers of 1947 to 1964 are now having the babies they postponed during the "baby bust" of the 1970s, according to "Delayed Childbearing in the U.S.: Facts and Fictions," a Population Bulletin published by the Population Reference Bureau, Inc., a private, non-profit organization in Washington, D.C.

The authors of the 42-page report, demographers Wendy H. Baldwin and Christine Winquist Nord, indicate, however, that so far the deferred "echo baby boom" is faint. Annual total births in the United States climbed from below 3.2 million in the mid-1970s to 3.7 million in 1982 and then actually slipped to 3.6 million in 1983. This is far below the record 4.3 million births in the baby boom peak year of 1957.

But first births to women 25 and older, the authors' definition of delayed childbearing, more than doubled in the dozen years after 1970--from 268,830 in 1970 to 561,814 in 1982--and their share of all first births rose from 19 to 36 percent. Among women aged 30 to 34, first births more than tripled in these 12 years. On the other hand, the proportion of women still childless at ages 25 to 34 rose 56 percent--from 18 to 28 percent--between 1970 and 1981.

The report notes that today's delayed childbearing is an "epidemic" only by contrast with the young parenting of the baby room era. The pattern is similar to that of women who reached childbearing ages during the 1930s, postponed childbearing during the Depression and then tried to catch up later during the prosperous post-World War II years. Like their grandmothers in the 1930s, women now in the childbearing ages are also deferring marriage; the proportion of never-married among women aged 20 to 24 in 1983 (56 percent) was the highest it has been since 1890. But with the help of contraceptives, they are also delaying childbirth after marriage. The median interval between marriage and first birth for mothers over 30 when the baby is born is now more than five years.

Also like the 1930s, Baldwin and Nord say, today's delayed childbearing is partly a response to hard times. Because of recurrent recessions and their high numbers, baby boom men and women have faced fierce competition in th job market as they reach working ages. Current delayed childbearing also coincides with the flood of women into the workforce, which, combined with women's new commitment to careers, is likley to prompt them to continue delaying motherhood "even after economic prospects brighten for young people," Baldwin and Nord observe.

Most delayed childbearers are white, highly educated, 2-career couples. Statistics for the late 1970s indicate black college-educated women are still twice as likely as their white counterparts to be mothers by age 25 (53 versus 28 percent).

The authors report little research so far on how the older working mother copes with juggling a job and childbearing or what effect delayed childbearing has on the marital relationship. But they believe that money can help with many potential problems. A recent study shows that older parents spend more money on their children, especially higher income couples where husbands' earnings peak in their late 40s about the time children born after the wife is 30 reach their most expensive years.

The report confirms that the proportion of women unable to conceive a child does rise with age--from nine percent at ages 25 to 29 to 15 percent at ages 30 to 34, 30 percent at ages 35 to 39 and 64 percent at 40 to 44. However, these figures are based on studies of historical populations. The authors point out that new treatment methods can overcome infertility in half the couples who seek help, and for the remainder possibilities exist for artificial insemination, in-vitro fertilization and embryo transfer.

The report points out that current high figures on first births to women aged 25 to 34 are related to the inflated numbers of baby boomers now in those ages. The same phenomenon, the authors write, guarantees high figures until the 1990s. They conclude that women born in 1964--the year labeled by demographers as the last year of the baby boom--have just turned 20, and "most show no signs of reverting to early childbearing patterns."

Copies of "Delayed Childbearing in the U.S.: Facts and Fictions" are available for $5.00 each from the Population Reference Bureau, Inc., 2213 M St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20037.

COPYRIGHT 1985 U.S. Government Printing Office
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