文章基本信息

标题：The New Mexico economy - Business Forecaster
作者：Carl E. Enomoto
期刊名称：New Mexico Business Journal
印刷版ISSN：0164-6796
出版年度：1991
卷号：April 1991
出版社：American City Business Journals, Inc.

The New Mexico economy - Business Forecaster

Carl E. Enomoto

The New Mexico Economy

In January of this year, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released state personal income figures for the third quarter of 1990. Personal income for New Mexico was up 6.2% from its level a year earlier.

Statewide gross receipts were up 3.5% in the third quarter of 1990, compared to the same quarter a year earlier; and they were up 12.7% in the fourth quarter of 1990, compared to their fourth quarter level in 1989. The finance, insurance, and real estate industry, however, posted a decline in gross receipts in the fourth quarter of 1990 relative to the same quarter in 1989.

Total nonagricultural employment in the state was up approximately 2.3% in the third quarter of 1990 relative to its level a year earlier. However, third quarter employment levels in 1990 were down in mining, construction, trade, and finance, insurance, and real estate.

Unemployment rates for New Mexico in 1990 dropped from a July figure of 6.5% to an August figure of 6.1%. They continued to fall with a September figure of 5.6% and an October figure of 5.5%. In November, the unemployment rate increased to 6.1%, and the preliminary December rate is 6.5%. Employment was lower in December of 1990 (compared to December 1989) in construction, transportation and public utilities, wholesale and retail trade, and finance, insurance, and real estate.

We are forecasting a 4.3% increase in state personal income for New Mexico for 1991 over its level in 1990. Given that we expect an inflation rate at or above this figure, this means little, if any, gain in real personal income for the coming year. The state economy should start to pick up in 1992 given a stronger national economy and an end to the recession. We are forecasting a 4.8% increase in state personal income for that year over 1991.

Our forecasts for statewide gross receipts indicate a 5.1% increase in the second quarter of 1991 over the 1990 level in the same quarter. We are also projecting a 6.8% increase in gross receipts in the third quarter of this year compared to its level a year earlier. Finally, unemployment rates should remain in the high six percent range until the end of the year.