Census to dole out congressional seats by New Year's Eve

WASHINGTON -- In the next few weeks the Census Bureau will release the first wave of numbers from this year's decennial population survey -- figures that will be used to calculate the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives starting in 2002.

The data slated for release the last week in December -- population counts of every state, Puerto Rico and American residents overseas -- will determine the makeup of Congress from 2002 until 2012. It will also set off redistricting, the once-a-decade scramble in the states to redraw congressional district boundaries, next year.

Reapportionment, the redistribution of the 435 House seats among the states, is determined by population, with each district expected to comprise about 635,000 people.

All states -- regardless of whether they gain or lose seats -- will have redraw their congressional district boundaries.

Projections on the distribution show Texas, which now has 30 House seats, picking up two more, and Arizona, which has six members, also getting two extra seats. The projections were made by Election Data Services, a Washington, D.C.-based consulting company that specializes in census analysis and redistricting.

The EDS analysis also shows New York losing two of its 31 seats and Pennsylvania losing two of its 21 seats.

California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Montana and Nevada are each expected to gain a seat. Oklahoma, Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi, Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to lose a seat.

Since Census forms were first mailed out eight months ago, federal statisticians have been combing data, analyzing the figures and searching for inaccuracies. They have already calculated the population of 32 states, Census Director Kenneth Prewitt said.

"We are where we need to be at this stage in the process," said the census director.

Under federal law, the Census Bureau has until Dec. 31 to provide the population figures for all 50 states and U.S. territories. Prewitt said the federal agency is on schedule to meet the deadline and expects to issue the figures the last week of December. These numbers will be based solely on the actual count of residents based on where they lived April 1 of this year.

By April 1, 2001, the next federal deadline, the Census Bureau must reveal the final population figures to be used in redistricting. This information is far more detailed and will include data on race, ethnicity, age and gender.

According to a federal rule published in early October, the Census Bureau director has the final word on whether to adjust those figures for suspected undercounts based on a follow-up survey aimed at improving the accuracy of Census 2000 data. That survey, expected to be released in February, will use a statistical method called sampling and other demographic data to determine how many people the 2000 Census missed. At that time a Census Bureau panel will review the survey and recommend to the director whether the agency should adjust population figures to reflect the undercount.

Opponents of sampling say it is an unscientific technique that could unfairly cause the count to exaggerate the number of minorities. Since population counts are used to distribute billions of dollars in federal funds, the critics say urban areas would get more than they deserve.

Proponents of sampling -- including the Census Bureau -- say it would not lead to over-counts and over-funding and that it merely would improve the data's accuracy.

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