MEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT

SOUTH: Duke looks beatable - NOT!

BIGGEST MISMATCHES: Winthrop - not good. Duke - very good and the defending champs. Enough said. Same goes for No. 2 seed Alabama pummeling Florida Atlantic.

TOUGHEST TO CALL: Pittsburgh went 27-5 against a Big East-laden schedule. It also took UConn to two overtimes before losing in the conference tournament title game. So, the Panthers club Central Connecticut, right? Ummmm, no. Pitt's best player, Brandin Knight, sprained his right knee Saturday vs. UConn and will be hurting - at best - against 27-4 Central Connecticut. ... Does Utah's Rick Majerus have a box-and-one up his sleeve to contain No. 5 seed Indiana's Jared Jeffries? Facing the portly coach and his tourney-tested strategies could spell doom for the Hoosiers.

UPSETS WAITING TO HAPPEN: Penn is 25-6. And the 11th-seeded Quakers are more athletic than the average Ivy League champ. Despite beating an underachieving UCLA team in the Pac-10 tourney, Cal slumped late. Penn is the pick. ... Kent State is a chic mid-major pick. There's one every season. Yes, Oklahoma State had a so-so year. But Eddie Sutton's teams don't lose early very often. It will be close, but Oklahoma State plays sound defense and should stay away from the upset bug.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 DUKE vs. No. 8 NOTRE DAME

Chris Thomas of the Irish is the best freshman in the country not named Dajuan Wagner. Problem is, Duke restocks with a half-dozen Chris Thomases every season. Also, the Blue Devils don't choke. Ever. Notre Dame is overmatched and the score shows.

No. 5 INDIANA vs. No. 4 SOUTHERN CAL

Henry Bibby goes to the us-against-the-world card every season. Last year, it worked to the tune of a spot in the regional finals. Jeffries is a big-time player; USC's Sam Clancy is tougher, meaner, stronger and just plain better.

No. 11 PENN vs. No. 3 PITTSBURGH

Somebody has to play Cinderella, so we're going with Penn. It's not often an Ivy League champ is seeded this high - and there's a reason. The Quakers won their past nine games by an average of 20 points. They also set an Ivy record with 248 3-pointers.

No. 7 OKLAHOMA STATE vs. No. 2 ALABAMA

The SEC had the best conference RPI. Too bad its regular-season champ represents the conference so poorly. Sutton is one of the best. Maurice Baker is finally healthy for the Cowboys. Against a 'Bama team that has no outside game, the balanced Cowboys score the upset.

WEST: Look out, Cinderella is ticked off

BIGGEST MISMATCHES: Sure, top seed Cincinnati will pound Boston University; likewise No. 2 Oklahoma to Illinois-Chicago. But don't be surprised if Gonzaga lays some serious wood to a Wyoming team that doesn't even belong in the field. As they should be, the 'Zags - ranked No. 6 in the AP poll - are ticked off being a six seed. The Cowboys pay the price.

TOUGHEST TO CALL: No. 12 Missouri vs. No. 5 Miami. OK, so Missouri went rather quietly in the Big 12 Tournament and never deserved its preseason hype. What the Tigers do well is score. It says here they beat the 'Canes and overrated Ohio State before wilting against Cincinnati's brutal defense. . . . Ten seed Hawaii could give No. 7 Xavier a serious scare. Hawaii, the WAC champ, has ridden its European connection and a thin bench to 27 wins. Riley Wallace, in his 15th season, is an underrated coach. It will be close until the Musketeers' David West takes over.

UPSETS WAITING TO HAPPEN: Davidson, a No. 13, won at North Carolina early. Then again, who didn't? It could give the Big Ten champion Buckeyes a battle. . . . UCLA has as much talent as anyone in the region, and could topple Mississippi and stretch Cincinnati. But, Missouri is the only team that scores an upset here.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 CINCINNATI vs. No. 9 MISSISSIPPI

Ole Miss won 20 games against an SEC schedule, and Rod Barnes always has his teams scratching mad come March. But the Bearcats have Steve Logan and the Rebels, well, they don't.

No. 12 MISSOURI vs. No. 4 OHIO STATE

So Missouri's coach sweats more than the players and does his best to cultivate the Leo DiCaprio look. The Tigers have four players who can score, including powerful Arthur Johnson, who will make life miserable for Ohio State's perimeter-oriented rotation. It's not a titanic upset (sorry), but Mizzou gets through.

No. 6 GONZAGA vs. No. 3 ARIZONA

History says the Wildcats either wilt early against the likes of East Tennessee State or march to the Final Four. The Bulldogs have Dan Dickau, a less-hyped, better-shooting version of Duke's Jason Williams. Arizona counters with Jason Gardner. Give Dickau and the 'Zags a slight edge there, but who guards the Wildcats' Luke Walton? Arizona in a squeaker.

No. 7 XAVIER vs. No. 2 OKLAHOMA

Xavier's West is one of the nation's best. Oklahoma might be the most athletic team in the field of 65. Plus, the Sooners are sky- high after beating Kansas in the Big 12 final.

EAST: There's something about Maryland

BIGGEST MISMATCHES: The East may have the closest number of first- round games. Then again, if you take the average margin of victory, the East could rank in the middle. Maryland is going to destroy the winner of the play-in game, and Georgia is going to run away from No. 14 Murray State.

TOUGHEST TO CALL: Just a year ago, No. 15 Hampton upset Iowa State. This year, UConn's perimeter defense should contain Hampton's shooters. Hampton has three players who attempted more than 100 3- pointers this season . . . . What Texas Tech has done is remarkable - the Red Raiders won nine games last season - and No. 11 Southern Illinois doesn't have anyone who can stop 6-foot-11 Andy Ellis. . . . No. 8 Wisconsin plays a grabbing, holding style. St. John's will use that same style to beat Wisconsin. Be careful viewing this game, it may be more painful to watch than ESPN's "A Season on the Brink". . . . Michigan State beat Ohio State twice and No. 7 N.C. State lost to Ohio State, so we pick MSU.

UPSET WAITING TO HAPPEN: Valparaiso's pressure defense will disrupt No. 4 Kentucky's offense. The Wildcats average more than 14 turnovers a game; Valpo averages more than 10 steals.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 MARYLAND vs. No. 9 ST. JOHN'S

St. John's plays exceptional defense and can slow the pace against Maryland. The problem is the Red Storm has its own problems on offense. St. John's won six games in which it shot less than 40 percent. Against Maryland, that won't work.

No. 5 MARQUETTE vs. No. 13 VALPO

Valparaiso has a distinct size advantage against Marquette, but smaller, quicker teams like Cincinnati hurt Marquette. Valparaiso played Arizona and Kansas close in January. Those games will help secure the upset.

No. 3 GEORGIA vs. No. 6 TEXAS TECH

Rashard Wright is one of the best point guards in the SEC, but he is Georgia's lone 3-point threat. Tech's Ellis will again be the key. No team will be relying on one player more than the Red Raiders will count on him.

No. 2 UCONN vs. No. 10 MICHIGAN STATE

If the game comes down to free throws, Michigan State will win easily. If the game is decided by talent and experience (which it will) UConn will advance.

Michigan State doesn't have any seniors in its starting lineup.

MIDWEST: KU will wave goodbye early

BIGGEST MISMATCHES: No. 16 Holy Cross, No. 15 Montana, No. 13 San Diego State and No. 12 Creighton have the same chance of upsetting Kansas, Oregon, Illinois and Florida, respectively, as any cast member from "Seinfeld" does of creating another successful TV show. Just ask Bob Patterson, you know, the guy in the KFC commercials, how hard that is.

TOUGHEST TO CALL: Casey Jacobsen gives Stanford a chance to win any game, but the Cardinal was only 4-3 against ranked opponents. Western Kentucky's size will matter too much. . . . No. 14 McNeese State hasn't been in the NCAA Tournament since 1989 and is riding a 14-game winning streak, but Mississippi State is still mad about last season. The Bulldogs had the best RPI (40) of any team that didn't make the tournament.

UPSETS WAITING TO HAPPEN: Boston College got worse as the season progressed, but its guard tandem is still one of the most dangerous in the country. No. 6 Texas has one of the best freshmen in the country in point guard T.J. Ford, so look for B.C.'s Troy Bell to step up to the challenge of playing against him. . . . No. 7 Wake Forest should control the boards against Pepperdine, but its pressing full-court defense will leave Pepperdine's 3-point shooters open.

SECOND ROUND

No. 1 KANSAS vs. No. 9 WESTERN KENTUCKY

The sun always rises in the East, Wile E. Coyote never catches the Road Runner and Kansas always loses in March. Forget that Kansas has the most talented team in the country. Remember 1997, Paul Pierce, Raef LaFrentz and Jacque Vaughn had just one regular-season loss? Remember 1998, when the No. 1 Jayhawks lost in the second round to Rhode Island? Remember what month it is now?

No. 4 ILLINOIS vs. No. 5 FLORIDA

Which team is a bigger regular-season disappointment? At the beginning of the year both of these teams were preseason favorites.

Illinois has made a surge by finishing the regular season strong. Frank Williams may try to do too much after a lackluster regular season.

The Gators went 11-1 against a soft nonconference schedule, but they have enough depth to survive.

No. 3 MISS. ST. vs. No. 11 BOSTON COLLEGE

Mississippi State's lineup will force B.C. to counter with a three- guard lineup of its own, and the Eagles will advance.

No. 2 OREGON vs. No. 10 PEPPERDINE

Oregon will move on thanks to its tough schedule. Entering the Pac- 10 Tournament, Oregon was 6-1 against ranked teams.

Defending champ Duke, led by Jason Williams, won't get much of a test in the first two rounds. A rematch of last year's regional final vs. USC looms in the semifinals.

Copyright 2002
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