City grows with the flow

For the first time in any major market report, the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Report 1995--2004, authored by our firm and recently released, includes data for the entire island of Manhattan.

In the past, reports on the residential market have covered the East Side, West Side and downtown Manhattan residential real estate markets, but have not included the area that we are calling Uptown.

The Uptown market has become increasingly visible as development activity gains momentum in the area, considered an alternative to the high and still-rising price levels to the south.

Uptown includes the markets of Harlem, East Harlem, Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, Washington Heights, Fort George and Inwood. These markets are located north of West 116th Street and East 96th Street to the northern tip of Manhattan.

Highlights of the 2004 Manhattan market

Mortgage Rates Remain Low, Fueling Demand

Manhattan continues to be a mortgage rate-driven real estate market. Experts have predicted an increase in mortgage rates since early 2004, but this has not yet occurred. In June, the Federal Reserve attempted to bring short-term rates back up to historic norms and keep inflation in check. However, mortgage rates actually edged lower for the second half of 2004 remaining at or near historic lows.

Price Records Set In Nearly All Markets

The average sales price of a co-op and condo apartment on the entire island of Manhattan exceeded $1,000,000 for the first time to $1,004,232, an increase of 18.1% above the prior year average and 140.5% above the prior decade average of $417,585.

The average price per square foot set a record of $767 per square foot which is 14.1% above the $672 price per square foot record set last year and 136.7% above the $324 mark seen in the prior decade.

Apartment Inventory Fell For The Second Straight Year

The number of apartments available for sale fell for the second consecutive year. There were 3,922 exclusive listings available at the end of 2004, down 19% the end of 2003, and down 34.4% from the 2002 year-end total of 5,977.

However, inventory levels may not be as out of sync with demand levels in 2006 as rising mortgage rates are expected to bring more balance to the market in terms of price levels and marketing times.

The 2004 Co-op Market Central Park West And Soho/Tribeca Showed Largest Gains

The median sales price for co-op apartments on Central Park West showed the largest year over year gains, increasing 32.7%. Several unusually large coops with a Central Park West address changed hands in 2004. However, since the median sales price removes the high and low sales, the record increase in prices was more broad-based rather than an anomaly. The median sales price of an apartment on Central Park West in 2004 was $2,250,000, up from $1,695,000 the prior year. The second highest co-op market was located in the Fifth/Park Avenue Corridor with a median sales price of $1,625,000, up 21.5% over the prior year. Soho/Tribeca posted the second largest gain in median sale price at 30.4%, to $1,350,000. Loft apartments continue to be in high demand. The median sales price of a Soho/Tribeca co-op tied the median sales price, but outpaced the 17.4% increase in co-op prices seen in Chelsea.

Entry-Level Market Gains Share

Entry-level apartments, defined as studio and 1-bedrooms, had a 55% market share--up from 52% seen in 2003.

The perception of future increases in mortgage rates as the economy improves may be what is driving the gain in share of the entry-level segment, which tends to be more reactive to changes in mortgage rate patterns. At the same time, there was small gain in market share of 3 and 4 bedroom apartments, which saw a 6% share in 2003 and a 7% share in 2004.

The 2004 Condo Market

Greenwich Village Had The Largest Gain In Median Sales Price

The median sales price for condo apartments in Greenwich Village increased 66.7% to $1,600,000. This is 533.7% above the $252,500 median sales price seen in 1995.

The surge in prices as compared to the prior year and decade was attributable to the shift in larger new units entering the market, which tend to be in excess of 1,800 square feet.

The average square footage of all Greenwich Village condo units sold in 2004 was 1,636 square feet, This is up from 1,457 square feet in 2003 and 1,053 square feet at the end of 1995. Battery Park City saw the second highest increase in median sales price, up 56.1% to $515,000. Midtown West/Turtle Bay saw the third largest gains at 41.2% to $600,000.

The neighborhood of Soho/Tribeca had the highest median sales price of all condo markets at $1,615,000. Greenwich Village came in second place, and Chelsea was third.

The full report is available for download as a PDF at http:// www.millersamuel.com/reports.

JONATHAN MILLER,

PRESIDENT/CEO

MILLER SAMUEL INC.

COPYRIGHT 2005 Hagedorn Publication
COPYRIGHT 2005 Gale Group