Overall, 2006 will end up as a pretty good year for the U.S. economy, although not in all dimensions. Growth in total output (GDP) should be close to 3.3 percent (see Figure 1). Payroll employment will have grown by about 1.8 million, and the unemployment rate will have declined by about one-half point (see Figure 2). The output and employment numbers come close to matching our relatively optimistic outlook from a year ago, while the unemployment result is better than we expected.