出版社：Government of Western Australia / Department of Fisheries
摘要：The cost of growing out western rock lobsters from pueruli to marketable-sized lobsters has
been modeled from available information. The model uses different scenarios of survival
rates, marketing weights, market prices, feed costs, puerulus prices, labour costs, puerulus
compensation costs, discount rates and capital costs. The sensitivity of estimated profitability
to various input costs and rock lobster prices was assessed by estimating the impact of changes
on the estimates of net present value (NPV) internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit:cost ratio.
Importantly, the aim of the study was to identify key cost and benefit-driving parameters, so
that future research directions and policy decisions can be directed towards overcoming these
potential barriers to profitability, but not to provide conclusive evidence of overall expected
profitability at this stage.
Economic analysis suggests that, because of growth and mortality relationships over time, the
optimal period to market the lobsters may be at about two years post-settlement, or ~250 g.
However this conclusion is highly sensitive to the assumed price at which the product can be
sold. Western rock lobsters of 250 gm are below the legal size limit (~400 g) upon which the
pricing data are based, so estimating a market price for ¡°undersized¡± lobsters was particularly
difficult. Survival rates were also shown to be crucial in determining the potential financial
success of an ongrowing venture; the rates achieved experimentally to date would need to be
substantially improved.
Labour is expected to be the biggest single expense in a western rock lobster growout operation,
with estimated costs for this component contributing around 38% of the cost of each kg of
farmed lobster produced. It follows that labour cost assumptions (along with assumptions about
the survival rate of pueruli) had the biggest impact on profitability. Other costs ¨C
such as the
price of feed, the price of pueruli for ongrowing, compensation costs for harvesting pueruli and
capital expenses ¨C were, within their chosen sensitivity constraints, all shown to be moderately
influential in determining the success or otherwise of a growout venture.
The study has not attempted to assess the profitability of growing out western rock lobster
pueruli. However, the data suggest that positive returns would be more likely if the grown out
lobsters are marketed below the legal size limit of wild-caught lobsters.
While some input parameters had a greater impact on the resultant profitability estimate than
others, the impact of each parameter on the profit result provided useful insight into the way
research effort could be directed to improve profitability.
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