摘要：Since the price spike in March, prices have fallen dramatically due to strong production in
the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, with larger estimated crops in major exporting
countries (Canada, the European Union, the United States, and Australia), their ending
stocks are forecast to rebuild by about 40 percent. However, at 39 million tons, they are
still forecast at 12 million tons below the 25-year average level. Historically, global wheat
prices have shown a strong inverse correlation to ending stocks held by these 4 major
exporting countries, since much of their stocks are normally available for export to the
world. In recent weeks, prices leveled off well above the 5-year average price of $209/ton
in part due to sustained strong global demand and uncertainties over crops in the southern
hemisphere (Argentina and Australia).
