期刊名称：Beiträge aus der Nordwestdeutschen Forstlichen Versuchsanstalt
印刷版ISSN：1865-6994
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
页码：305-305
出版社：Universitäts-Verlag Göttingen
摘要：Given the increasing demand for wood, reliable information about future stocks of
timber for beech, the most important broadleaved tree species in Germany, is
needed to develop competitive, sustainable silvicultural management strategies.
The national forest inventory (BWI) provides an ideal database for the prediction
of future timber stocks at different levels (national, state, regional, etc.). Based on
the second national forest inventory (BWI 2), this paper presents the status quo
(2002) and scenario calculations for beech timber stock up to 2022 for Lower
Saxony and Germany. The results then are compared to the base scenario from the
timber stock prediction model HAM (BMVEL 2004). The scenarios considered
predict an average utilisation potential for beech between 14 Mio. and
20 Mio. m3 a-1 for Germany, which is well above the wood volume harvested in
2006 (10 Mio. m3 a-1). These scenarios predict in part an increase in beech growing
stock. A similar situation was found for Lower Saxony, whereby here a utilisation
potential of between 1.5 Mio. and 2 Mio. m3 a-1 is targeted.
The growth observed in the period between BWI 1 and BWI 2 was used to
assess the spatial validity of a prognosis conducted for the same period. Both the
effect of geographical location and elevation were found to be significant for
beech. This outcome was used then to calibrate the growth model to increase its
accuracy, and hence improve the timber stock prognoses.
