摘要：To assess the link between climate
variability and hydrological regime,
we focused our study on the mid-Holocene
(6 ka years BP) and the last
cold period of the Late Quaternary (21
ka BP). We discuss how well current
general circulation models (GCMs)
can reproduce river runoff changes
and, consequently, variations in
closed lake level under contrasting
climate conditions. The Paleoclimate
Modeling Intercomparison Project
(PMIP) (Joussaume and Taylor, 1995)
has run simulations that are used in
this study. The rivers of the East European
Plane (EEP) were selected for
analysis. Feed of rivers is determined
by the balance of precipitation and
evaporation in the catchment, hence
river runoff change responds immediately
to climate changes. It is important
that both precipitation and
evaporation are calculated by a GCM.
Moreover, on large planes, such as
the EEP, GCM data much better refl
ect the state of climate compared
to areas with complex mosaic surface
conditions. Additionally, large
amounts of paleoclimate data exist
on the EEP for selected periods of
the past.
