出版社：Liberalni Institut, University of Economics, Prague
摘要：In this paper I show that Austrian trade cycle theory is fully consistent with
rational expectations. I also compare and contrast rational expectations with an alternative
theory of rationality and show that Austrian trade cycle theory is consistent
with this alternative theory of rationality. I achieve the above by first providing an
exposition of Austrian trade cycle theory. I then proceed to show that one would have
to associate omniscience with rationality to claim that Austrian trade cycle theory is
inconsistent with rationality. I also show that because the central bank manipulates
the money supply in an erratic manner, it is impossible to use Austrian trade cycle
theory to predict exactly when the current cycle will end and the next cycle will begin.
Further, I show that even if all businessmen and entrepreneurs had rational expectations,
the trade cycle would still occur. I show that because of the nature of the
monetary and banking system we have today, the trade cycle must necessarily occur,
and that it is supporters of the current system who have irrational expectations.
