摘要：The current paper presents a brief
method focused on the identification of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) with
unfavourable evolution which need target interventions policies for diminishing
the deterioration of populations?health. Method. A valid supervises of
health needs involve at least the description of two major components: disease
and death. The method proposed is based on the calculus of percentage change in
the rate of standardised mortality for age group 0-64 years and in the rate of
discharge from hospital for NCDs which are
important causes of premature death. In the same time it is presented a simple
mathematical model from time series analysis. The methodology is applied in EU
and recommended by WHO. Results . In this paper the analysis is applied
for Romania by comparing the main outcomes with the corresponding EU results.
For both cases the chronic diseases with a sharply evolution were identified and
for Romania an expected development of standardised premature mortality rate
after 2004 and the percentage change in health over 2004-2009 estimated with 95%
confidence were also proposed. Conclusions . The growth in the rate of
hospital discharges during 1996-2004 shows in an indirect way the unfavourable
evolution of a special group of diseases. The calculation of percentage change
is complementary to the classical calculus of rate and brings about value-added
pointing at the explosive evolution of some major diseases. The method is a
useful tool for the elaboration of strategies on prevention of NCDs and a map
for an optimal resource management (health units, staff, budget) according to
their trend.
关键词：noncomunicable diseases, premature
mortality, standardised death rate per 100000, hospital discharges, percentage
change, trend analysis
