期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2008
卷号：4
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the
upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region
in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were
expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the
framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and
Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were
constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient
simulations made by 3 GCMs – ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual
hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was
used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change
scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and
2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.
