期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2008
卷号：4
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will
force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its
duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the
state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management
and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for
the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation
models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative
modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social
sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as
water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000
km2). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition.
DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially
distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which
strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their
overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce
the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe
coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator
12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate
impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change
in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the
scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that
strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow
conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of
today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly
indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow
conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.
