摘要：Question: How would you describe the current
security situation in Iraq , and what are the
prospects for withdrawal of U.S. forces, following the Petraeus
report?
Ryan: It is still too
unsettled to say that the security situation in Iraq is good or even better than before. By many
measures (sectarian violence, murders, terrorists captured/killed) security is
better today than a year ago. However, reports show that civilians are still
dying at high rates and terrorist attacks continue. The ultimate factor in
whether the security situation will actually be better is the ability of the
Iraq forces to sustain the achievements of
coalition forces. Regardless of the security situation, U.S. troops are
beginning the drawdown. General Petraeus announced
that the 5 surge brigades would return to the U.S. after their 15-moth tours
ended 2008 and will not be replaced. The reason they will not be replaced is
because the U.S. does not have the will to mobilize additional forces to replace
them. The prospect for even more withdrawals beginning in summer 2008 is good.
In his speech following Petraeus’ report to Congress, President Bush said that he had approved Petraeus’
recommendation to begin shifting more effort to training of Iraqi forces and
handing off security responsibility to Iraq
security forces. This change in mission will allow further reductions in Iraq and, by December 2008, it is possible that the U.S.
could have as few as 10 brigades in Iraq .
