摘要：Decision Support Systems are proliferating rapidly in many areas of human
endeavour including clinical medicine and psychology. While these are typically
based on rule-based systems, decision trees, or Artificial Neural Networks, this
paper argues that Bayes Theorem can be applied fruitfully to support expert
decisions both in dynamically changing situations requiring the system
progressively to adapt, and when this is not the case. One example of each of
these two types is given. One provides diagnostic support for human decision
makers; the other, an e-health mental intervention system provides decision
rules enabling it to respond and provide the most appropriate training modules
to input from clients with changing needs. The contributions of psychological
research underlying both systems is summarized.
关键词：Bayes' Theorem, Decision Support Systems (DSS), base rates, diagnostic error,
e-health intervention, individuating information
