出版社：Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia
摘要：This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It
ex- plores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently
stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to
shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced
workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in
the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the
third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future
generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The
simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will
be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without
AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These gures are
dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the
survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.
