摘要：We simulate the redistributive impact of three scenarios of a Basic Income (BI)
in the province of Québec. Simulations are performed by maintaining a balanced budget
for the combined provincial and federal governments. The first scenario B supposes that a
first set of social and fiscal provisions are replaced by a BI and that the marginal rates of
taxation on personal incomes (TPI) are unchanged. This first set of provisions includes the
majority of the tax credits with regards to basic needs and to the support for families as well
as a host of other tax and transfer parameters whose abolition would universalise and simplify
the tax and transfer system. The second scenario C modifies the explicit TPI marginal
rates in order to reduce some of the perverse effects of the elimination of scenario A’s provisions.
The third scenario D eliminates the province’s current safety net program as well
as the federal employment insurance programme so as to increase the generosity of the BI.
It also changes importantly the structure of the explicit TPI marginal rates.
Incomes vary significantly according to the scenarios. The most affected are single-parent
families, whose average incomes fall by 7.17% in scenario B but rise by 3.3% and 12.6%
in scenarios C and D respectively. Those living alone undergo falls in average income in the
three scenarios. Couples with children gain on average regardless of the scenarios whereas
couples without children see little change on average. Old age people lose on average with
scenario C but gain with scenario D.
Scenario B increases poverty, scenario C reduces it for families with children and for couples
without children, but increases it over the entire population. Scenario D decreases
poverty in the entire population and increases it only for those living alone (and very little
for the older individuals). Inequality increases importantly in scenario B, decreases slightly
in C, and decreases significantly in scenario D. The additional redistribution carried out by
a BI can amount to around 2% of the total income. Finally, the implicit marginal rates of
taxation are equalised considerably by each of the BI scenarios.
