期刊名称：Economic Assessment of the Euro Area / Euroframe
出版年度：2005
卷号：SPR
出版社：The Economic and Social Research Institute
摘要：Current-account balances are at present very unevenly distributed across the world
economy. Many economists, including Obstfeld and Rogoff (2004) and Blanchard,
Giavazzi and Sa (2005), have expressed their deep concern about the situation and expect
adjustment to take place with a large probability. This process would be associated with
large movements in exchange rates as shown in many empirical papers examining the
current account adjustment periods, see. E.g. Croke et al (2005) or Debelle and Galati
(2005). We share this view, and in this paper we aim to study the nature of the
imbalances and the consequences of their adjustment with the aid of a global
macroeconometric model. To that end, we employ the National Institute Global
Econometric Model (NiGEM), which describes the economy in a more detailed way than
the models used by the aforementioned authors; see, e.g., Barrel et al. (xxxx). This
approach allows us to determine possible consequences of global rebalancing from a
European perspective in a detailed way.
