期刊名称：Economic Assessment of the Euro Area / Euroframe
出版年度：2006
卷号：SPR
出版社：The Economic and Social Research Institute
摘要：New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity
has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty,
both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, surrounding the determination of the
optimal exchange rate. In effect, the probability of misalignment of the entry rate can be a
non-zero one. Given the possible - if not inevitable - misspecification of the equilibrium rate it
is thus advisable to focus on the effects of a misalignment of the entry rate for the economy, as
it has implications for countries¡¯ both real and nominal convergence. An overvalued
exchange rate would have an adverse impact on a country¡¯s competitiveness and its growth,
while an undervalued currency would contribute to an overheating of the economy and an
excessive inflation. The objective of this paper is to better understand the role of the entry
rates for short run inflation and GDP developments and their implications for the inflation
criterion and the real convergence process. Having estimated equilibrium exchange rates for
the eight out of ten countries that entered the EU in May 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia we conduct simulations showing
what their adjustments to equilibrium would be if their entry rates deviated from the optimal
ones.
