期刊名称：Economic Assessment of the Euro Area / Euroframe
出版年度：2006
卷号：AUT
出版社：The Economic and Social Research Institute
摘要：Over past years, there have been significant differences in cyclical developments
in the euro area. The paper addresses the question to what extent these
differences can be explained by the pronounced differences in residential
construction activity. In our econometric analysis of housing investment in the
euro area we, as a first step, distinguish between Germany and the rest of the
euro area. This distinction is motivated by the fact that German developments
have been special in several respects over the past 20 years and, given the large
size of the Germany as a proportion of the euro area economy, influence the
developments on an aggregate euro area level significantly (as opposed to, e.g.,
Austria where housing investment¡ªand population growth¡ªwas rather similar
to German patterns). Since swings in housing investment in Germany over the
recent two decades have been associated with pronounced changes in
population growth, special emphasis is given to the importance of demographic
developments in explaining diverging trends in housing investment. Population
growth and demographic developments that affect the number of households,
such as shifts in the share of population in household formation age and falls in
the average size of households, all have potentially important implications for
housing demand. We estimate functions for Germany and the rest of the euro
area where residential investment depends on the existing level of housing
stock, real income, the user cost of capital (proxied by the real interest rate) and
population growth. In order to quantify the importance that demographic
developments through the channel of residential investment have as an
explanation of the growth differential between Germany and the rest of the euro
area, we simulate how economic activity in the two regions had evolved under
the assumption of identical demographic trends using these equations and a
macroeconometric model for Germany and the rest of the euro area.
