摘要：In 2007 world output is
expected to slow slightly
with respect to the very rapid
growth of 2006; it will be
driven by the emerging countries, which are enjoying
favourable fi nancial conditions and still high raw
material prices (Table 1). Th e expansion in world trade
in goods and services should continue to accelerate.
Th e protracted strong growth of the world economy
thus appears set to continue. However, although the risk
of a less favourable performance has not materialized
to date, it should not be underestimated. In the United
States, the decline in investment, including nonresidential
investment, could prove larger and longerlasting
than expected and might be associated with
a downturn in consumption. Th e country’s current
account defi cit is still very large, constantly fuelling
concern for the orderly evolution of exchange rates in
the future. Th e fi nancial markets remain vulnerable to
bursts of volatility (see the box “Th e recent turbulence
in the fi nancial markets”) that could induce investors
to restructure their portfolios, with repercussions on
share prices and risk premiums.
After falling sharply between August and January,
oil prices have risen again recently, heightening
infl ationary pressures in the leading industrial
countries (Figure 1). Th e prices of futures contracts
on WTI grade oil indicate that the price will rise from
$64.1 per barrel on 28 March this year to $68.9 in
December and $71.1 inclusive of the risk premium.
