出版社：Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia
摘要：This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force
participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy,
in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in
retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We
develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that
embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the
increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es
the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security
system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and
demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have
increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed.
However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social
security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of
retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social
security expenses as a share of GDP.
