摘要：On October 13, 2008, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), the central
bank of Greece (Bank of Greece – BoG) and the largest Greek commercial bank
(National Bank of Greece – NBG) jointly hosted the OeNB’s 63rd East Jour Fixe
on the topic of “Financial Deepening and Macrofinancial Stability in Southeastern
Europe.” In her opening remarks, Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, Head of the OeNB’s
Foreign Research Division, pointed out the OeNB’s strategic interest in strengthening
the dialogue with Greek banks and the BoG, given that Greek banks have
been vigorously expanding their activities toward Southeastern Europe (SEE) in
recent years. Therefore, the OeNB’s Foreign Research Division had actively sought
to coorganize this East Jour Fixe with Greek partners. While the program for
the 63rd East Jour Fixe had been designed in the summer of 2008, the aggravation
of the financial crisis in September 2008 had a strong impact on the whole event.
In his keynote lecture, Adalbert Winkler, Professor at the Frankfurt School of
Finance & Management, stressed that the foreign (euro area) bank-based financial
deepening in SEE – as opposed to capital market-based financial deepening in e.g.
the CIS (for instance in Russia and Kazakhstan) – substantially lowered the risk of
“sudden reversal” , as parent banks can be expected to support their subsidiaries as
long as they have faith in their long-term solvency and profitability and as long as
they have the financial means to do so. He concluded that a repetition of the Asian
(liquidity) crisis in SEE was unlikely and that the baseline scenario was rather that
credit expansion would continue at a lower speed or even stop and the growth
slowdown would have a negative impact on credit quality. However, there would
be a risk of negative multiplier and financial accelerator effects (also via the slowdown
in the euro area), in case of which fiscal policy would be the key instrument
to avoid the “Portugal” scenario of protracted growth slowdown due to adjustment
needs.
