摘要：Crespo Cuaresma and Slacík (2007) show that macroeconomic cík (2007) show that macroeconomic fundamentals are rather
fragile determinants of currency crises under model uncertainty. The objective of the present
follow-up study is to search for empirical support for the first- and second-generation models
of currency crises in emerging economies using a larger dataset that includes crisis episodes of
the 1980s and 1990s, while explicitly taking into account model uncertainty in a Bayesian
manner. In line with the propositions made in the theoretical literature, our results suggest
that crisis episodes in the 1980s were driven predominantly by adverse developments of
macroeconomic fundamentals, while the results for crises in the 1990s might well be interpreted
as empirical support for the second-generation type of crises. In addition, our estimation
results stand in contradiction to the popular bipolar view and suggest that de facto intermediate
exchange rate arrangements considerably reduce the risk of a speculative currency
attack.
