期刊名称：The Bulgarian Economy in 2008 (annual report)
印刷版ISSN：0861-6345
出版年度：2005
卷号：APR
页码：16-16
出版社：Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting
摘要：In the last two months oil prices went on the upswing due to the short-lived undersupply
in the market and statements that global demand may never be satisfied in the long
run. Although the team of AEAF analysts believe that the high oil prices are mostly
speculative in nature, the assumptions have been revised upwards to about USD 8
per barrel on average. Following the sharp rise at the end of the first quarter, Q2
prices are likely to remain rather high only to go on the downturn in the second halfyear
period of 200514.
Oil price dynamics affected some underlying assumptions. The Federal Reserve went
on raising the Fed¡¯s rate in an attempt to offset inflationary expectations. Although US
inflation in the last three months stepped down from 3.5 to 3% on an annual basis,
there are still fears that it may pick up speed. All these developments affected the
LIBOR, which posted a rather vigorous Q1 rise. However, relative to some earlier
estimates, the rate is not expected to report any significant change at the end of the
year. And yet, due to the early-year rise it is anticipated to run some 0.3 percentage
points higher on a 12-month basis.
High oil prices had an adverse effect on the Euro area, bringing about a certain growth
slowdown of 0.6 percentage points on average. As a result the European Central
Bank is not expected to raise the refi rate in so much as Euro area inflation runs
comparatively low vis-¨¤-vis inflation in the USA and around the ceiling the ECB aims
at. This, however, may lead to a broadening interest rate difference between the US
currency and EUR and hence end-of-year appreciation of the USD relative to some
earlier forecasts.
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