期刊名称：The Bulgarian Economy in 2008 (annual report)
印刷版ISSN：0861-6345
出版年度：2005
卷号：JUL
页码：14-14
出版社：Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting
摘要：Q3 crude oil prices fell short of AEAF expectations. Following the peak in March and
April, oil prices stepped down only to go on another upswing in mid-May due to the
unstable situation in the Middle East. The price increase was triggered not only by
underlying economic factors at work but market speculations as well. As a result of
the growing oil demand worldwide, the chances of producers to respond to short-term
shocks remain rather slim. As such shocks are inevitable and hard to predict, the
reduced possibilities of producers to increase production leads to market turmoil and
hence higher prices. In the short run, oil demand remains inelastic as to prices and
higher prices are therefore not expected to bring about a decrease in demand. The
current estimates do not provide for an oil price drop by the end of the year. As a
result, average spot prices are to amount to some USD 50-51 per barrel on a quarterly
basis, which corresponds to an increase of slightly less than USD 4 per barrel
vis-a-vis earlier estimates.
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