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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Forecasts
  • 期刊名称:The Bulgarian Economy in 2008 (annual report)
  • 印刷版ISSN:0861-6345
  • 出版年度:2005
  • 卷号:OCT
  • 页码:13-13
  • 出版社:Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting
  • 摘要:Q3 average oil prices ran some USD 10 higher than earlier estimates as a result of the tightened relations between Iran and the USA as to Iran¡¯s nuclear programme and the damages suffered by the US oil industry in the wake of the hurricanes. All this exerted some extra pressure on trading and in end-August futures market prices stepped up well over USD 70 per barrel. However, as a follow up, some of the big economies had recourse to market interventions by unblocking their strategic reserves and oil prices set back at slightly over USD 60 per barrel in September. Current estimates do not provide for any further increase in oil prices for two main reasons: first, consumption is already on its way to turn to alternative sources of car fuels, and second, there are all the indications in place of a certain slowdown in global growth prompted by the excessively high oil prices. Therefore, with a view to the coming winter months, current forecasts draw on some USD 62-63 per barrel in the last quarter, and an insignificant price decrease ever afterwards.
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