摘要：We measure the relative contribution of the deviation of real activity from its
equilibrium (the gap), “supply-shock” variables, and long-horizon inflation
forecasts for explaining the U.S. inflation rate in the post-war period. For
alternative specifications for the inflation-driving process and measures of
inflation and the gap, we reach a similar conclusion: the contribution of
changes in long-horizon inflation forecasts dominates that for the gap and
supply-shock variables. Put another way, variation in long-horizon inflation
forecasts explains the bulk of the movement in realized inflation. Further, we
find evidence that long-horizon forecasts have become substantially less
volatile over the sample period, suggesting that permanent shocks to the
inflation rate have moderated. Finally, we use our preferred specification for
the inflation-driving process to compute a history of model-based forecasts of
the inflation rate. For both short and long horizons, these forecasts are close
to inflation expectations obtained from surveys.
