摘要：Robust (cross-border) interbank markets are important for the proper functioning
of modern financial systems. However, a network of interbank exposures may lead
to domino effects following the event of an initial bank failure. We investigate
the evolution and determinants of contagion risk for the Belgian banking system
over the period 1993–2002 using detailed information on aggregate interbank
exposures of individual banks, large bilateral interbank exposures, and
cross-border interbank exposures. The "structure" of the interbank market
affects contagion risk. We find that a change from a complete structure (where
all banks have symmetric links) toward a "multiplemoney-center" structure (where
money centers are symmetrically linked to otherwise disconnected banks) has
decreased the risk and impact of contagion. In addition, an increase in the
relative importance of cross-border interbank exposures has lowered local
contagion risk. However, this reduction may have been compensated by an increase
in contagion risk stemming from foreign banks.
