摘要：We estimate empirical reaction functions for the European Central Bank (ECB)
with ordered-probit techniques, using the ECB's Monthly Bulletin to guide the
choice of variables. The results show that policy reacts to the state of the
real economy, M3 growth, and exchange rate changes but not to inflation. We
develop quantitative indicators of the Governing Council's assessment of
economic conditions to understand its interest rate decisions and argue that the
ECB has not reacted to inflation shocks because they were seen as temporary. By
contrast, policy responses to economic activity are strong because it impacts on
the outlook for inflation.
