摘要：There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full
potential by central banks today. In this paper, using data from Sweden, we
demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that
policymakers deal with in practice. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR
and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more subjective forecasts, both in
terms of actual forecasts and root mean-squared errors. We also discuss how to
combine model and judgment-based forecasts, and show that the combined
forecast performs well out of sample. In addition, we show the advantages of
structural analysis and use the models for interpreting the recent development
of the inflation rate through historical decompositions. Last, we discuss the
monetary transmission mechanism in the models by comparing impulse-response
functions.
