期刊名称：BRE : Brazilian Review of Econometrics / Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria
印刷版ISSN：0101-7012
出版年度：2005
卷号：25
期号：1
页码：3-3–42
出版社：Rio de Janeiro
摘要：Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of
a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human
capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a
particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations.
The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian
labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers
the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the
causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and
Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE)
and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE)
provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities
of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or
fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters
relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts,
and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results
confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment
relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also
show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability
of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial
sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that
an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as
the unemployment rate rises.
关键词：Turnover, Determinants of quits and dismissals and bivariate probit model
