出版社：Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Univ. Hohenheim
摘要：This paper deals with potential instabilities of the eurozone stemming from an
insufficien interplay between monetary policy and reform effort on the one hand
and the emergence of intra-euro area divergences on the other. As a first step,
we assess the effect of EMU on structural reform and investigate this question
by an examination of the relationship between fixed exchange rates and reform in
two wider samples of countries. We also stress that loose monetary conditions
which prevailed until some months ago can also manifest themselves in asset
price inflation, notably in the housing market. When these bubbles burst, for
example, when housing prices stop rising, this often leads to a prolonged period
of economic instability and weakness rather than consumer price inflation. As
a second step, we point out that risks for EMU are not only increasing because
longer-term disequilibria become evident in fiscal and monetary policy, but also
because serious divergences are now appearing within the euro area which
threaten its long-term cohesiveness. The most manifest example of this threat
comes from what promises to be a long-term divergence between Germany
and Italy which for the time being was offset by asynchronous developments of
house prices in both countries. There are still large differences within the
euro area, with the small countries performing much better than the large ones
on almost every indicator. This suggests that better policies can make a large
difference even if monetary policy is the same for everybody. Finally, we
construct a simple formal model in order to investigate whether EMU is in
danger from internal tensions which could lead to severe instabilities. The
experience so far has shown that some countries are continuously losing
competitiveness. Is this a structural problem in the sense that these countries
just have problems in keeping inflation at level that does not imply a
continuing loss of competitiveness? Or is the persistence of higher inflation
one can observe in some countries due to the internal dynamics of a monetary
union in which any country that starts with higher inflation rate also has a
lower real interest rate, which stimulates demand, and thus leads potentially to
even more inflation. The purpose of our theoretical section is to discuss what
the main factors are which could lead to such diverging cycles.
