摘要：We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on
the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a
union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach to modelling
poverty is the right way to bring economic tools to bear on the issue. In our
implementation of this approach, we focus on endogenous demographic and
employment transitions as the driving forces behind changes in poverty. We
construct a dataset covering event histories over a long window and estimate
five simultaneous hazards with unrestricted correlated heterogeneity. The model
fits the demographic and poverty data reasonably well. We investigate the
important parameters and processes for differences in individuals’ poverty
likelihood. Employment, and particularly employment of disadvantaged women with
children, is important
