摘要：A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of
monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the
aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the
timing of the shock: when the monetary policy shock takes place in the first two
quarters of the year, the response of output is quick, sizable, and dies out at
a relatively fast pace. In contrast, output responds very little when the shock
takes place in the third or fourth quarter. We propose a potential explanation
for the differential responses based on uneven staggering of wage contracts
across quarters. Using a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model, we show
that a very modest amount of uneven staggering can generate differences in
output responses similar to those found in the data.
