期刊名称：CERT Discussion Paper / Center for Economic Reform and Transformation
出版年度：2008
卷号：2008
出版社：Edinburgh
摘要：Middle East and North African (MENA) countries have
traditionally anchored their currencies largely on the US dollar, but the
creation of the euro means that there is now for the first time a real
alternative numéraire and anchor available. This paper estimates the effect of a
menu of exchange rate regimes on trade within a gravity model, using the Baier
& Bergstrand (2006) Taylor expansion technique to allow for multilateral
trade resistance. This approach allows simulations of the effects of changes in
the exchange rate regime for a particular country or region which explicitly
take into account the associated changes in multilateral and world trade
resistance. Results are presented for eight different scenarios: pegging to the
dollar, dollarising, pegging to the euro and euroising, each of these on an
individual country basis and when the MENA countries all implement the change
together. We find that in terms of the trade effects for most MENA countries it
would be better to anchor on the euro than on the dollar, but for some others
(typically small oil exporters with large exports to Asian countries) it would
be better to continue to anchor on the dollar.
关键词：gravity, geography, trade, exchange rate regime,
currency union, transactions costs, multilateral trade resistance, MENA, Middle
East, North Africa, euro, dollar
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