摘要：We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the
effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple
static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit
relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10
basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a
cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of
debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average
levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal
policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing
increases each country’s interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy
continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide
debts and deficits.
关键词：Government deficit, public debt, long-term interest rates
