标题：Evaluation der Förderung beruflicher Weiterbildung im Rahmen des ESF-BA-Programms * Wirkungsanalyse auf der Grundlage von Befragungen von Teilnehmenden und Vergleichsgruppen
出版社：Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung
摘要：The promotion of further vocational training for unemployed persons according to
SGB III was supplemented by the European Social Fund (ESF) from the beginning
of 2000 to autumn 2008. 80 per cent of the total of 116,000 promoted cases are
allocated to the years 2000 to 2002. An impact analysis is presented in this report
covering the population participating in these years. Outcomes subsequent to participation
are measured, firstly, by the fact whether participants entered into employment
at all and, secondly, by transition into non-subsidized employment liable to
social security. Unemployed non-participants and participants without additional
ESF-funding serve as comparison groups. Separate analyses were run for subgroups
where possible (West/East Germans, non-recipients of benefits according to
SGB III, male/female participants and, in an excursus, migrants with and without
additional language courses).
The analysis is empirically based on the longitudinal data from representative panel
surveys of ESF-funded participants and comparison groups whose samples were
drawn on the basis of exact pre-matching with process-produced data. The method
of event history analysis was applied throughout the study (partly supplemented by
propensity score matching, which, however, can estimate status probabilities but not
probabilities of transition). First of all, transition rates for the overall observation period
of six years were compared (Kaplan-Meier estimator). In the following the effect
of participation was estimated in a Cox regression, taking into account further explanatory
factors (such as personal characteristics, regional and program-related
heterogeneity, job-seekers' behaviour).
Since, other than earlier studies, this analysis was conducted with longitudinal survey
data using more elaborate methods, the results of preliminary findings are obsolete
now. In contrast to earlier findings, a clearly positive effect of supplementary
ESF-funding on individual benefits can be found. Compared to unemployed nonparticipants,
participants supported by the ESF were more successful on the labour
market in the medium and long run (especially participants in West Germany and
the group of non-recipients of statutory benefits). With reference to further vocational
training without ESF-funding, the results point to positive outcomes as well.
