期刊名称：IAEE Energy Forum (formerly: IAEE Newsletter)
印刷版ISSN：1093-4243
电子版ISSN：1944-3188
出版年度：2004
卷号：3
页码：25-25
出版社：International Association for Energy Economics
摘要：An increasing number of petroleum geologists,
particularly those who have worked internationally outside
Europe and the United States, are beginning to recognise
that the quite dramatic decline in global discovery of new
reserves of conventional oil since the mid-1960s will result in
oil, and thus energy, supply difficulties in the near to medium
term - that is over the next 10 to 20 years.
Assuming a framework of existing demand trends,
the analytical requirement is to identify when shortfalls in
oil production will most likely occur, and to quantitatively
assess by how much a 'business-as-usual' demand forecast
will exceed supply. It is a complex challenge since increasing
supply tightness pushes up price, which suppresses demand,
and encourages more difficult and expensive resources to the
market.
