出版社：Urad za Makroekonomske Analize in Razvoj (UMAR) / Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD)
摘要：This article tries to give additional
insights on the endogeneity
hypothesis of optimum currency
area criteria introduced by
Frankel and Rose (1996). It
investigates the effects of Kenen
s (1969) criterion of diversification
on business cycles synchronization
for samples of industrial and
transition countries over the
periods 1991-1998 and 1995-
2004. Following Kenen, higher
diversified economies should lead
to more coordinated business
cycles because they would be more
affected by symmetric industryspecific
shocks. The results of the
empirical analysis are quite
paradoxical and do not support
theoretical argument. They
indicate that diversified economic
structures are irrelevant in case
when industry-specific shocks
dominate business cycle synchronization.
Moreover, the evidence
seems to suggest that the effect
of diversification is negatively
associated with the bilateral
correlations of business cycles. On
the contrary, the effect of
diversification is positive and
stronger in case when countryspecific
shocks are the dominant
force in explaining business cycle
synchronization.
The article also investigates the
differences in the impact of the
type of shocks and trade structure
and trade intensity on business
cycle correlation among industrial
countries and among industrialtransition
(the EMU and the
CEEC-EU-8) country pairs. The
results show that industry-specific
shocks actually cause the
convergence of business cycle
among industrial countries, while
for the transition countries
country-specific shocks are more
important in explaining business
cycles synchronization. The results
also suggest that in case of the
industry-specific shocks domination,
increased intra-industry
trade actually induce higher
business cycle correlation while in
case when the country-specific
shocks dominate business cycle
synchronization, the trade
intensity, inter-industry trade and
diversified trade are the main
determinant of the synchronicity
of the business cycles correlation.
These contradictory conclusions
could support Kenen's (2000)
hypothesis that the impact of trade
integration (as well as the trade
structure) on shocks synchronization
depends on the type of
shocks. And finally, from the view
point of classic theory of OCA, only
Mundell s (1961) criterion of
similarity in production structures
dilutes the asymmetric effects of
industry-specific shocks.
关键词：optimum currency area, trade, diversification, specialization, business cycles, shocks, integration
