摘要：This paper has a dual purpose. First, I present a new modeling of partial
naivete, and apply this to the analysis of procrastination. The decision
maker is assumed to have stationary behavior and to be partially naive in the
sense of perceiving that his current preferences may persist in the future. The
behavioral implications of such partial naivete differ from those of related literature.
Second, I suggest a general principle for welfare analysis in multi-self
settings through a new application of Pareto-dominance, which is motivated
by the existence of time-inconsistency and coincides with dominance relations
used elsewhere in game theory. In the case of procrastination, it leads to a clear
welfare conclusion: Being partially naive reduces welfare.
关键词：Procrastination, partial naivete, time-inconsistency,
game theory, behavioral welfare economics.
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