摘要：We show that the recent rise in Afghan opium production is caused by violent
conicts. Violence destroys roads and irrigation, crucial to alternative crops, and
weakens local incentives to rebuild infrastructure and enforce law and order. Exploiting
a unique data set, we show that Western hostile casualties, our proxy for conict,
have strong impact on subsequent local opium production. This proxy is shown to be
exogenous to opium. We exploit the discontinuity at the end of the planting season:
Conicts have strong e
ects before and no e
ect after planting, assuring causality.
E
ects are strongest where government law enforcement is weak.
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