期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics. In particular,
we analytically characterize the short and medium term consequences of epidemics for population size, age pyramid,
economic performance and income distribution. To this end, we develop a three-period overlapping generations where
altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of
(junior) adults and children depend on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. The model emphasizes the
role of orphans. Orphans are not only penalized in front of death, they are also penalized in the access to education.
Epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the survival rates. We identify three kinds of epidemics
depending on how the epidemic shock alters the marginal efficiency of health expenditures. We first study the
demographic dynamics, and prove that while a one-period epidemic shock has no permanent effect on income
distribution, it can perfectly alter it in the short and medium run. We then study the impact of the three kinds of
epidemics when they hit children and/or junior adults. We prove that while the three epidemics have significantly
different demographic implications in the medium run, they all imply a worsening in the short and medium run of
economic performance and income distribution. In particular, the distributional implications of the model mainly rely on
orphans: if orphans are more penalized in the access to a high level of education than in front of death, they will
necessarily lead to the medium-term increase in the proportion of the unskilled, triggering the impoverishment of the
economy at that time horizon.
关键词：epidemics, orphans, income distribution, endogenous survival, medium-term dynamics
